Fannie Mae Gave Up on Lower Rates. Sellers Should Too
Fannie Mae's Mortgage Rate Forecast Just Flipped. Sellers Should Act Like It.
A month ago, Fannie Mae told us 30-year mortgage rates would drift down to 6.7% next year. This week it changed its mind. In its October housing outlook, the mortgage giant now expects the average 30-year fixed to sit at 7.4% through the rest of 2026, then climb to 7.5% in 2027 and stay there all year. That is not a tweak to the forecast. That is a surrender. (Consumer Affairs, October 15)
What is driving it? The same thing pushing your grocery bill up. September inflation jumped 3.7% year over year, way above the Fed's 2% target, and futures traders are now giving better-than-even odds that the Fed raises rates again later this month. (NerdWallet, October 14) Meanwhile the rate buyers actually pay, 7.40% on a 30-year fixed in Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey, is unchanged from the week before, up from 6.27% a year ago, and sitting at its highest level in nearly three years. (Freddie Mac, October 15)
The waiting game is over
Here is my take. If you have been sitting on your sale, waiting for cheaper money to bring a flood of buyers back, stop waiting. That flood is not coming. Fannie Mae just told you so, and they are the people who finance half the mortgages in America.
But this is the part that actually matters. Buyers are not waiting either. The ones still shopping know exactly what 7.4% costs them. They have done the math, winced, and they are buying anyway. They are just pickier. They will tour your home, run the numbers on their phone in the driveway, and negotiate harder on the small stuff. Price your home for the buyer standing in front of you, not the one you were imagining at 6.5%.
High rates make FSBO math better, not worse
A traditional sale hands roughly 6% of your price to agents. On a $400,000 home, that is $24,000. When affordability is this tight, every dollar matters more, to you and to your buyer. Keep that commission in your pocket and you have room to negotiate on closing costs or a repair credit without touching your bottom line. Pay an agent and that money is just gone.
None of this means listing at any price works. It does not. Overprice in this market and you will sit while correctly priced homes move. But if you are priced right, presented well, and honest about what the market is, remember this. Buyers at 7.4% are serious buyers. They have already qualified. They have already accepted the rate. They want a home, not a fantasy.
So here is the move. List at a real number, keep the commission you would have handed an agent, and negotiate the small stuff instead of slashing your price. The rate outlook is not going to save your sale. You are.
Ready to list? Start your free 15-day trial: a one-time fee from $49 after the trial, and not a cent of commission. Not sure what your state requires? Check your state's FSBO guide first. More market notes like this land on the Property Blog every day.