Goldman's 2027 Housing Outlook: What FSBO Sellers Do
Goldman's 2027 Housing Outlook: What FSBO Sellers Do
Goldman Sachs published its 2027 housing outlook on Thursday, and I read it the way a seller should: as a warning against waiting. Their economists, Ronnie Walker and David Mericle, expect existing-home sales of just 3.9 million in 2027. That is down from 4 million forecast for 2026, and 26 percent below 2019 levels. Price growth? They call it anemic: 0.8 percent December-over-December in 2027, after 1.1 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2025.
Read that again slowly. This is not a forecast of a crash. It is a forecast of a grind. Fewer sales, barely any price growth, and no rescue coming over the horizon. If you have been telling yourself you will list when the market comes back, Goldman just told you the market they see coming back is not much of a market at all.
Why so few people are moving
The reason is sitting in millions of kitchen-table budgets. More than 95 percent of mortgage borrowers hold rates below today's market rates, and 65 percent are at least two full points below. Moving means giving up a cheap mortgage and taking out an expensive one. That is a real financial cost, not just a feeling, and people who do not have to move are choosing not to.
That lock-in keeps listings scarce, which sounds good for sellers until you remember the other half of it. Your buyer faces the same rates. The 30-year fixed rate stood at 7.32 percent as of October 22. Goldman Sachs credit strategists expect it to fall to 6.4 percent in 2027, but they add that affordability would still be historically poor even then. So do not bank on 6.4 percent saving your price either. It would help. It would not transform anything.
What this means for your sale
A thin market cuts both ways. Fewer competing listings means a well-priced home gets noticed. But buyers in a thin market are picky and payment-obsessed, and an overpriced home just sits while the neighbours' price cuts do the talking. With price growth near zero, you cannot count on the market to lift a hopeful asking price up to reality. Reality has to be in the price on day one.
That is where selling it yourself gives you room an agent-listed seller does not have. You are not paying roughly 6 percent in commission. On a $400,000 home, that is about $24,000 you kept. A slice of it toward a rate buydown or a closing credit attacks the exact number your buyer is stuck on: the monthly payment. Run that payment on our mortgage calculator so you can see what your buyer is actually staring at, and check our pricing breakdown so you know what you keep before you offer anything.
What I would do this week
Price off closed sales, not list prices and not what your neighbour hopes to get. Then get the listing live while buyers are still looking, with sharp photos and a straight description. A fresh listing priced for today's payment tells a much better story than a stale one with an old price. Our selling kit walks through getting that listing live without an agent in the middle.
I am not telling you to panic-sell. I am telling you not to wait for a 2027 boom that Goldman Sachs does not see coming. If you need to move, move on today's numbers, not next year's forecast. The sellers who win a grind like this are the ones who price honestly, make the payment work for the buyer, and keep the commission they saved working for them.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, The Outlook for US Housing in 2027, 30 October 2026. Photo: Pexels.