New-Home Sales Beat Forecasts. Resale Sellers, Note This
New-Home Sales Beat Forecasts. Resale Sellers, Note This
Here is a number I did not expect to write this week. Builders sold more new homes in September than forecasters thought they would, and they did it by selling cheaper. The Census Bureau says sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September. That is down just 0.6 percent from a revised 680,000 in August, and down 5.3 percent from a year ago. Forecasters had pencilled in something around 650,000. Builders beat it by meeting buyers where their budgets are.
The price tells the story. The median new home sold for $400,400 in September, down 3.9 percent from $416,800 a year earlier. It is also the seventh straight month the median new home has sold for less than the median existing home. The National Association of Realtors put the median existing-home price at $417,500 in September. Your buyer can now walk into a brand-new house, with a warranty and no one else's wallpaper, for about $17,000 less than the typical resale.
Builders are working harder than you think
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, summed it up plainly. Builders are meeting buyers' budgets with price cuts, financing incentives and smaller, more affordable homes. More than half of the new homes sold in September, 51 percent, went for less than $400,000, up from 46 percent a year earlier. The National Association of Home Builders agrees: affordability is still the hurdle.
At 7.32 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage last week, per Freddie Mac data in the Reuters report, that buyer cannot stretch. So builders shrink the house, cut the price, or buy the rate down. I wrote earlier this month about how builders are buying rates down into the fives, and September's sales show that playbook still working.
What 8.4 months of supply means for your price
There is still plenty of new stock to clear. Inventory sat at 476,000 new homes at the end of September, which is 8.4 months of supply at the current sales pace, down a touch from 8.5 months in August. About 111,000 of them are completed and ready to move into right now. A buyer does not have to wait for a build. They can tour a finished new home this weekend and move in next month.
That is why your first price matters more than ever. I covered the fall in housing starts last week, and fewer starts does mean less new competition down the road. But the homes already built are still there, discounted, setting the ceiling for your street.
What I would do this week
First, go and look at the new builds near you. Not their brochure prices, their actual sold prices and incentives. That is the number your buyer is comparing you against. Second, price under that competition, not above it. You have one advantage the builder does not. You are not paying roughly 6 percent in commission. On a $400,000 home that is about $24,000 you kept. Use a slice of it the way builders do, on a buydown or a closing credit, and you can still walk away ahead.
Third, sell what a new build cannot. Your home is in an established street, ready now, not in six months. Buyers at 7.32 percent are doing payment maths on their phones. Run your numbers on our mortgage calculator and check your ask against our pricing breakdown before you go live.
Builders are now the cheaper option on the median, and they are working hard to stay that way. Price like you know it, spend a little of your saved commission on the buyer's payment, and you can still be the best value in your buyer's search.
Sources: NAHB on September new-home sales, 27 October 2026; Real Estate News on September new-home sales, 27 October 2026; Reuters on September new-home sales and median price, 27 October 2026. Photo: Pexels.