Yun Slashes 2026 Forecast to 2%. Here's My FSBO Take
Yun Slashes 2026 Forecast to 2%. Here's My FSBO Take
Here's a forecast revision worth paying attention to, because it comes from the market's optimist. Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, has cut his 2026 outlook to growth of 2% or less for both existing-home sales and prices. Last November he was projecting 14% sales growth. That is not a tweak. That is giving up on the year.
Yun blames the same thing I have been writing about for weeks: mortgage rates climbing above 7% since late September, stubborn inflation, and geopolitical instability. The Mortgage Bankers Association's chief economist expects rates to sit around 7.3% through the end of the year and stay above 7% into 2027. New-home sales, in Yun's revised view, will fall 5% year on year.
The one hopeful line in the whole downgrade
Yun did leave one door open. He said a drop toward 6% in early 2027 could bring back the buyers sitting on the sidelines right now. I believe him on the direction. But do not plan your sale around it. A rate drop that might happen in a few months is not a pricing strategy. It is a lottery ticket, and your house is not the place to buy lottery tickets.
The freshest weekly numbers back him up. HousingWire's October 24 analysis had 52,490 homes going under contract in the week ending October 23, against 67,752 a year earlier. That is roughly 22.5% lower, but it was a small improvement on the week before. The bleeding slowed. It did not reverse. Active inventory climbed to 911,956 homes. So buyers have more choice than they have had in years, and they are still in no rush.
What a 2% forecast means for your asking price
When the top forecaster in the business says prices will grow 2% or less, read that plainly: your home probably will not be worth meaningfully more next spring than today. The equity story for the next few months is not appreciation. It is keeping the commission you would have handed to agents.
Here is the math that matters. A listed seller gives away roughly 6% of the sale price. On a $400,000 home that is $24,000. You keep it. That means you can price a little sharper than the agent-listed house down the street, offer a buyer a buydown or a closing credit out of money you never paid away, and still walk away ahead. I wrote about how builders are already doing exactly this, spending real money to buy buyers' rates down because the monthly payment is what sells a house at 7.3%.
Do not take comfort from builders pulling back. I covered the third straight monthly fall in housing starts yesterday, and fewer starts does mean less new competition next year. But the homes already built are still sitting there, and 43% of builders are cutting prices now. Your competition today is a discounted new build, not a forecast.
So what do you actually do this week
First, price for today's buyer, not for the buyer Yun hopes shows up if rates hit 6% next year. Run your numbers on our mortgage calculator so you can see the monthly payment your buyer is actually staring at, and check your ask against our pricing breakdown before you list.
Second, sell the payment, not just the house. A few thousand toward a buydown, paid from commission you saved, can move a buyer who is stuck on the monthly number. A price cut of the same size often cannot, because the buyer still has to qualify at 7.3%.
Third, stop reading forecasts for permission to wait. Yun was the optimist in this market. He just told you the year is a wash. The sellers who win in a flat market are the ones who list at a sharp price, make the payment workable, and keep their commission. That is the whole playbook, and it does not need a rate cut to work.
Sources: Realtor.com (via Liivra) on Lawrence Yun's revised 2026 forecast, 21 October 2026; HousingWire weekly market analysis via WRE News, 25 October 2026. Photo: Pexels.